A Reasonable Bet
According to an article on guardian.co.uk, things are not looking good for Labour:
In the months after the 1992 election, but before Black Wednesday transformed politics, Conservative support averaged 41% — the same as in ICM polls in 2009 so far.
In the aftermath of Neil Kinnock’s 1992 defeat, but before Black Wednesday, Labour averaged 37%. This year so far Labour’s ICM average has been 28%.
That difference is not explained by improved Liberal Democrat performance: the 1992 average was 18%, against 19% this year.
The missing support has gone to other parties, now averaging 12% in ICM polls against 5% in 1992. Today the Green party is on 3%, as is the United Kingdom Independence party. Among people thinking of switching their vote before the election, 8% are considering the Greens and 7% Ukip, which collectively exceeds the proportion thinking of changing to Labour.
In 2007 and 2008 the autumn conference season reshaped politics: the Tories shed three points between September and December last year, dropping below 40%.
But time is running out for a Labour recovery. In the September 2007 Guardian/ICM Labour support was 40%, eight points ahead of the Conservatives. In September 2008 Labour was on 32%, nine points behind the Conservatives on 41%. Today the gap is 17 points with Labour on 26% and the Conservatives on 43%.
As today’s poll shows, most voters now expect the Tories to win. On today’s figures, that looks a reasonable bet.
I started looking up opinion poll results after reading a transcript of the speech Peter Mandelson gave to the Labour (or is it “New Labour”, still?) conference a couple of days ago (the speech is here; and see below for a Wordle word cloud). I don’t very much like Peter Mandelson: he looks too conniving, too mendacious, even if he isn’t; and because, at times, he has been conniving and mendacious, I am now always a little on edge, always wondering and waiting. But his recent speech, though not awe-inspiringly good, was solid, its quality all the more noticeable when it is juxtaposed with the bloated, lacklustre, and meandering speech Gordon Brown gave at the conference a day later (at the bottom of the post is a word cloud of that one, too).
Neither of them, however, are people I would vote for, both of them now too far removed from the ideological energy that originally got me interested in Labour politics; too far removed from Clause IV, Tony Benn, and a belief that one day, things might actually change for the better, for everyone.
A Wordle-powered word cloud of Peter Mandelson’s speech to the 2009 Labour Party conference in Brighton.
A Wordle-powered word cloud of Gordon Brown’s speech to the 2009 Labour Party conference in Brighton.